Things to Watch for Tomorrow Night...

1. Indiana
for the first time in a long time Indiana is up for grabs. While Sen. Obama had a slight lead it has dissipated in the past few weeks and its dead even. Indiana's polls close at 3pm pacific. If Indiana goes for Obama it could be a quick night.

2. Virginia
Another traditionally "red" state that Obama has a significant lead in. Significant enough that many polls show him to have a lead beyond the margin of error. Virginia may be the first state that gives us a real indication if we are in for a landslide victory for Obama or a shocking McCain upset.

3. The Bradley Effect
I started with Indiana and Virginia because I thought they would transition easily to the one factor that will not be seen Tuesday night. The Bradley effect is a theory that goes back to the 1982 California gubernatorial race. Tom Bradley went into the election with a lead in the polls but lost. The theory was that white voters said one thing to pollster (attempting not to sound racist, or maybe even with sincerity) but couldn't bring themselves to actually cast their vote for a non-white candidate. If Obama does poorly in Indiana, under-performs in Georgia and loses in Virginia we might very well be in for a shock. If it even appears that the Bradley affect is occurring then there will be some very nervous Obama supporters looking at Ohio and Pennsylvania to see how the white working class votes there.

Pennsylvania
McCain cant win without this state. The good news for him is that he has been making some significant gains in the 4 days. Pennsylvania is still leaning towards Obama but it is in no way a sure thing. What Florida was to the 2000 election and Ohio was to 2004, Pennsylvania will be to 2008.

The Minority Vote on California's Prop 8.
Prop 8 will only pass if it is able to rally minorities to their cause. Blacks and Hispanics are in a strange place with this proposition. The charges that Prop 8 is discriminatory reminds them of the unfair laws that denied so many of them and their parents access and opportunities - including the opportunity to marry outside of their own race. However, both of these populations have deeply religious backgrounds. Their religious backgrounds and the claim that Prop 8 protects the sanctity of marriage and family also pull heavily at the groups. Should make for an interesting decision for these groups.