Sunday, February 2, 2014

Super Bowl Breakdown

Kam Chancellor v Julius Thomas 

 Let's assume Dymarius Thomas gets shutdown by Richard Sherman. I think the matchup between Julius Thomas and Kam Chancellor becomes super important. The Seahawks defense has been tremendous at shutting down opposing tight ends (Vernon Davis and Jimmy Graham are just two examples). But Thomas had the second best season of any tight end in spite of
  • having only one professional catch entering into this season and 
  • being injured during a large portion of the second half of the season. 
If the Seahwaks can take away both Thomas' from the game today, Peyton Manning will be in trouble.



Percy Harvin or Knowshon Moreno: Who can provide the extra spark? 

Percy Harvin was supposed to be the big time offensive threat for Seattle this year. Instead he's been injured all season long. Can he salvage his season by providing one or two big plays that Seattle had been hoping he could provide?



Knowshon Moreno is a big part of the Bronoco's three wide reciever sets because he stays in the backfield as extra protection for Peyton Manning and he is good enough of a rusher that he can gash defenses who go all in on defending the Broncos passing game. The problem for the Broncos: Moreno injured his ribs at the end of the AFC championship game and against a tough and physical defensive line it'll be interesting to see if how productive he can be for Denver.

Can the Seahwaks score enough? 

The stats speak for themselves:

  • week 13 versus Saints 1 defensive touchdown and 2 field goals for 13 of 32 (1 turnover) 
  • week 14 at San Francisco1 fg for 3 points. They scored only 10 points for the game. (1 turnover) 
  • week 15 at New York Giants 3 field goals for 9 of 23 points (and somehow they scored only 23 points even though they got FIVE turnovers) 
  • week 16 versus Arizona Cardinals1 field goals for 3 of their 10 points (only scored 10 points even thought they got four turnovers) 
  • week 17 versus St. Louis Rams 2 field goals and 1 defensive touchdown for 13 of the Seahwaks’ 27 points (2 turnovers) 

63 total points coming by way of offensive touchowns over the last five weeks of the season, an average of only 12.6 points per game. That's less than two offensive touchdowns per game.

  • Divisional playoffs versus the Saints 9 of the Seahawks 23 points came off field goals
  • Conference Championship versus the 49ers, again 9 points off of field goals. 23 points total. 

I don't think it's impossible for the Seahawks to win scoring 21 points or less - but it'll be difficult. They'll need Marshawn Lynch to put the team on his back.



Peyton Manning Throws Ducks

Richard Sherman was right when he said Peyton Manning throws ducks. He does. After four neck surgeries Peyton uses strategy and ball placement to succeed - not his arm strength. So what happens when he faces a secondary that will be bigger and more physical than any he has faced this season? We'll find out. The Seahawks secondary will not give his receivers and won't give him a chance to float balls in there. So what must the Broncos do? I think they'll need to use crossing patterns to create space and give Manning a chance. Otherwise he is going to have to dink and dunk passes all day.



Prediction Time

I said this last year: we haven't had a super Bowl blowout in a really long time. I predicted a blowout last year and was on my way to being right until that stupid power outage left the Raven's offense cold. This year's game is a pick em. You can make a strong case for either team. I don't think this will be a blow out but I think the winner will win by more than 10 points. 16-27 Broncos. I just think that Knowshon Moreno will be healthy enough to block effectively and to rush for over a 100 yards and a touchdown. I really only see Seattle winning if they somehow get at least one special teams/defensive scores or Marshawn Lynch goes into Beast Mode and rushes for over 125 yards tonight.

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