The Packers are the younger, healthier (and that is using the word loosely), and more athletic team. Even though the Packers are famous for the power sweep and playing in cold weather, this Packers team is built like a turf team. They are athletic, quick and built to march down the field on long passes or slants that lead to mismatches with safeties and linebackers. Aaron Rodgers is a great passer, who is also capable of moving out the pocket and making something out of a broken play. The Green Bay receivers can beat you deep (Greg Jennings) or eat you up all day with slant plays (Donal Driver).
The Steelers are a great defensive team against the run, Green Bay is a bad running team. So who cares. Green Bay is a pass first team and the Steelers will have to prove they can stop the passing game.
The Steelers linebackers and ball hawking DBs will have a tough time dealing with the receivers speed and will be forced to play physical, which may lead to penalties. Defensively, B.J. Raji should be able to eat up the Steelers back up center, Doug Legersky. When a front line can get penetration on a QB it makes it easier to use your LBs in disguise blitz packages or to have them cover the Steelers' check down options, Rashad Mendenall and Heath Miller.
Lastly, Hines Ward has had less than 3 catches in each game he has played against an elite team this season. If he doesnt have at least four catches it's hard to imagine the Packers defensive backs not being able cheat on Mike Wallace and thus stop him from making a big play.
Best case senario for the Packers is that they shake off the two week rust and put some early scoring drives together. The Steelers aren't built to come from behind in games - they are built to win close grind em out games. If they jump out to an early lead this could be a route.
Why the Steelers Will Win:
Though they are an injured mess, the Steelers are the veteran, championship tested team, who has been here before. Defensive players like James Harrison, Lawrence Timmons, James Farrior and Troy Polamalu don't just stop drives; they help win the turnover battle that often gives the Steelers offense a short field.
The Steelers offensive line has been decimated all season. The fact that the Packers are the healthy team going into this Super Bowl is an indicator of how badly hurt the Steelers are. So how do the Steelers score enough points to win? Ben Roethlisberger. As good as Aaron Rodgers is out of the pocket, Big Ben is the Picasso of turning a broken play into a big play.
Another reason the Steelers will win: The Packers always let other teams hang around. With the exception of the Atlanta playoff game the Packers let the Bears hang around two weeks ago and in week 17. In both cases they had to rely on late game interceptions to seal the deal. Same goes for their game against Philly. They let Philly hang around and had to be saved by a game saving INT. If the Packers let the Steelers hang around there will be no saving them. The Steelers love close games and have the experience to win them.
I feel that the real key to the Steelers success will be four fold. Cause at least two turnovers, will the penalty battle, use Heath Miller on first and third downs and lastly, have Rashad Mendenhall gain at least 80 yards on the ground. If the Steelers can run on the Packers it will force the Packers to play more conservatively on defense and that will allow the Pittsburgh offensive line to give their QB time to find his receivers.
Final Prediction:
If they can avoid crumbling under the spotlight of the super Bowl, the Packers are just too young, too quick, and too athletic to be stopped; especially on turf. There is only one way the Packers lose this game: they commit multiple turnovers and commit dumb penalties. Although part of me really believes that Pittsburgh can really win this game (especially if they establish a decent run game). But I think the probability of that happening with a weekend offensive line is slim. So I say Packers 28 - Steelers 17.
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